Those in the firearms community are beginning to sound the alarm on the coming ammunition shortage. Actually, some have been writing on the subject for a year or more, one writer was predicting three more years of shortage back in 2021. While there’s no shortage of Chicken Little gun writers out there, it is prudent for gun owners to take heed and prepare.
The last shortage/price increase began in 2020 and was driven mostly by rapidly increasing demand. A certain political party was very successful in promoting its version of racial hatred and division and the resulting violence frightened many Americans into purchasing firearms for the first time. This along with existing gun owners buying ammunition for the same reasons drove demand beyond the capacity of suppliers to keep up. It took years for prices and supply to settle down and while not returning to pre-crisis levels and prices, ammunition and reloading components have been available. Apparently, that is about to change but for different reasons than in 2020.
What’s driving the threat of upcoming ammunition shortages is not politically driven panic in America, at least not at the moment, but war, specifically the fighting in Ukraine and in the Middle East. And while those conflicts consume large amounts of small arms ammunition the real problem is gun powder or more specifically the ingredients required for its manufacture.
Nitrocellulose is one of the main ingredients in gunpowder as well as in propellants for artillery shells. In the United States, nitrocellulose is manufactured at the Radford Army Ammunition Plant in Virginia which primarily meets the needs of the military. Nitrocellulose for civilian ammunition is generally imported.
The Swiss make nitrocellulose, and the bulk after that comes from China and Russia. India also produces nitrocellulose. Given the current situation in Ukraine, America’s involvement there, and the increasingly close relationship between China and Russia, it’s unlikely large amounts of nitrocellulose will be coming to American civilian ammunition manufacturers anytime soon.
According to an article by Keith Wood of Guns & Ammo magazine, Russia fires roughly 10,000 rounds of artillery per day, Ukraine about 2000. Each 155mm shell uses 20 to 25 pounds of nitrocellulose, the equivalent used in about 25,000 rounds of 9mm ammunition. The U.S. has sent over 2 million shells to Ukraine since February 2022 and depending on what happens in November, may send many more.
How bad are things at the moment? While it doesn’t seem that the shortage is here, there are definite signs of its impending arrival. In May Alliance Powders announced they were suspending shipments of their smokeless powder lines. In my searches I’ve found Alliance powders available on-line although the sizes (1lb, 4lb, 8lb) were limited. I use Hodgdon’s Titegroup powder and while I was able to find it at Powder Valley, only 1 Lb. bottles were available rather than the 8 Lb. size I would normally buy. Some writers are predicting prices from $50 to $75 per Lb. I found Titegroup for $37.50/Lb. at Powder Valley.
So, what is a gun-owner to do? My suggestion is to gradually stock up so that you have what you need on hand to make it through any shortage that may develop. Ignore idiots that talk about hording, this is about being proactive and taking responsibility for your welfare. Estimate how many rounds you shoot per week and extrapolate that out to per month and finally per year. Once you know what you shoot per year, figure how much you want to have on hand, for me the number is five years’ worth, for you the number may be different. Buy something each month, primers, powder, bullets, or ammo until you feel like you have what you need.
Old timers will tell you that shortages happen from time to time for various reasons, and it is smart to be prepared. In modern times these shortages seem to be related to policy decisions so having the right people in office is especially important for gun owners. You’ll have a chance to express your opinion in November, choose wisely.
©2024 Joseph T Drammissi
This article and more of Joe’s work covering the Second Amendment and other topics can be found on Substack at https://getagrip.substack.com
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