Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics – Mark Twain
Many in the mainstream media (MSM) along with progressive left wing politicians are proclaiming that crime has been decreasing across the country over the last few years but is that really the case?
There are two primary sources of crime statistics in the US, the first being the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program and the other being the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). The data from these two sources has diverged since 2020 with the UCR showing a decrease in crime while the NCVS indicates an increase.
The UCR relies on the number of crimes reported to police agencies during the year while the NCVS asks 240,000 citizens annually if they’ve been victims of crime during the year. The UCR numbers have trended down in recent years while the NCVS numbers have trended up. Why is that?
Part of the reason for the lower UCR numbers is that beginning in 2019 the FBI began changing the reporting process law enforcement agencies were required to use to enter crime data into the system. By 2021 it was mandated that reporting agencies use the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) to submit crime data.
The result, due mostly to staffing challenges and complexity, was that a significant number of agencies were unable to report crime data for several years. In 2019 89% of agencies were able to submit data but by 2021 that percentage dropped to 63%. A number of agencies were unable to submit data including those from Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York which significantly reduced the number of crimes being reported. The FBI relaxed the NIBRS requirement in 2022 but many cities still struggle to comply submitting incomplete or faulty data.
In addition to incomplete data the FBI’s heavy reliance on estimation to fill in gaps in the data contributes to the inaccuracy of the aggregated data the result being a system that tends to undercount actual crimes committed and gives the impression that crime is decreasing. A good analysis of the situation can be read here.
Over the years from 2008 thru 2022 the NCVS and UCR numbers generally track together although there are some years where they diverge. But recently the divergence seems to be increasing with the NCVS showing an increase in violent crime in 2021 and 2022 of 13.6% and 29.3% respectively while the UCR shows a drop of -2.0% and -2.1%.
These numbers reflect increases in violent crime which includes rape and aggravated assaults. Some argue that even these increases are likely to be underrepresenting crime as victims may be less inclined to report crimes due to the growing lack of arrests and prosecutions.
The percentage of violent crimes cleared by arrest has been steadily decreasing over the past seven years and is well under 50%. In 2015 the percent of violent crimes cleared by arrest was 46% in all cities and 45.1% in cities over one million people. In 2022 those percentages were 35.2% and 20.3% respectively.
What does this all mean for law-abiding citizens? As most of us who have taken responsibility for our own safety and for that of our family know, crime is very likely increasing across the country and will likely continue to do so for the foreseeable future. If you are one who has accepted responsibility, you know no one is coming to save you and that you are your own first responder. Practice situational awareness, practice avoidance, the police won’t arrive in time to help.
What does this mean for gun owners? It means we must defend our Second Amendment rights and not allow politicians to endanger us. It means we must get involved and help educate people as to the importance of defending those rights. The rise in violent crime is 100% caused by poor policy decisions by those in power and is therefore 100% fixable by electing those who will not implement destructive policies. It really is that simple.
California is well into its second decade of poor, corrupt political leadership. Once known as the Golden State, California is rapidly taking on the appearance of a third world country, with respect to crime as well as in many other areas, all due to the poor policy decisions of those in power.
As we move closer to the coming election, Americans are again given the opportunity to do something, to make a change. At the federal level the choice has never been easier, the difference between how each side views America has never been more clear. The same can be said at the local level, the contrast between each party has never been more stark.
Come November, each of us will have an opportunity to voice an opinion, to make a difference, to make a change. In the words of an almost famous Israeli “your path is clear”.
©2024 Joseph T Drammissi
This article and more of Joe’s work covering the Second Amendment and other topics can be found on Substack at https://getagrip.substack.com
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